Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3497
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3497 · SAN → DEN
departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 50%
Sun 10/4 40%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.