Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3530 · SAN → SAT
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 1:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 35%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 557 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 3.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 54% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.