Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3564 · PHX → TUS
departs 10:50 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.