WN 3566 · RDU → MCO

departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 2:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3566 · RDU → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?