WN 3594 · BNA → RNO

departs 1:21 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3594 · BNA → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?