WN 3605 · RDU → TPA

departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 7:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3605 · RDU → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?