Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3633 · SFO → AUS
departs 12:50 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 41%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.