Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 3651 · SFO → PHX
departs 6:45 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 44%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.