Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3656 · BHM → MCO
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 55%
Mon 10/5 42%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.