WN 3686 · SJC → EUG

departs 10:51 AM PT · arrives 12:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EUG?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into EUG at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EUG

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

EUG (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3686 · SJC → EUG

Odds over time

How late will it get to EUG?