Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3712 · SJC → SNA
departs 3:15 PM PT · arrives 4:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SJC are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.