WN 3729 · SAT → PHX

departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 7.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3729 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?