Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3769 · SMF → MDW
departs 12:00 PM PT · arrives 5:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.