Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3775
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3775 · SMF → DEN
departs 12:00 PM PT · arrives 3:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.