Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3781 · SMF → HNL
departs 8:30 AM PT · arrives 11:00 AM HT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.