WN 3783 · SFO → PHX

departs 12:21 PM PT · arrives 2:30 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3783 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?