WN 3790 · SJC → AUS

departs 6:26 AM PT · arrives 11:52 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 733 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling733 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip1.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3790 · SJC → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?