Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3792 · SMF → LAX
departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 4:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SMF are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.