Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3799 · SMF → MCO
departs 10:10 PM PT · arrives 6:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.