Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3806 · DEN → BOI
departs 8:55 PM MT · arrives 11:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 28%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BOI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BOI?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.