Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3813 · SMF → PDX
departs 6:05 PM PT · arrives 7:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 31%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.