Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3827 · SMF → SLC
departs 8:05 AM PT · arrives 10:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 7%
Mon 10/5 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.