WN 383 · AUS → MSY

departs 1:11 PM CT · arrives 2:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

MSY (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 383 · AUS → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?