Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3853 · SNA → OAK
departs 6:35 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.