WN 3857 · AUS → DAL

departs 2:01 PM CT · arrives 3:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

DAL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip3.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3857 · AUS → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?