Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3863 · SNA → SJC
departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.