WN 3884 · MDW → MCO

departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 4:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.70 in

MCO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3884 · MDW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?