WN 3894 · SMF → AUS

departs 3:01 PM PT · arrives 8:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip2.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3894 · SMF → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?