WN 3899 · SMF → BUR

departs 6:31 AM PT · arrives 8:02 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3899 · SMF → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?