WN 3916 · SMF → HNL

departs 9:01 AM PT · arrives 11:33 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3916 · SMF → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?