Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3936 · STL → LAS
departs 9:55 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.