Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3944
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3944 · STL → MCI
departs 4:45 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.