Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3947
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3947 · STL → MCO
departs 9:55 AM CT · arrives 1:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 9/30 6%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3 7%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Other factors
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.