Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3948
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3948 · STL → MCO
departs 2:50 PM CT · arrives 6:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.