Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3949 · STL → MCO
departs 6:15 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.