WN 3981 · SMF → SNA

departs 3:51 PM PT · arrives 5:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3981 · SMF → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?