Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3982
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3982 · STL → SFO
departs 8:15 AM CT · arrives 10:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.