WN 3988 · SNA → DEN

departs 5:11 PM PT · arrives 8:38 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3988 · SNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?