Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3992
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 3992 · STS → LAS
departs 3:55 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 17%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
STS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.