Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3995
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3995 · STT → MCO
departs 2:45 PM AST · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave STT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.