WN 399 · AUS → PHX

departs 1:49 PM CT · arrives 2:26 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 399 · AUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?