Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4001
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4001 · TPA → AUS
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 63%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
91%
chance · ±8 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
91%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
91%
Yes 91%
No 9%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
8%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
37%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 6.33333 mi Precip 1.99 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.