Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4014 · TPA → DAL
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 5:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30 50%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 25%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±6 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.