WN 4021 · SMF → SLC

departs 7:26 AM PT · arrives 10:13 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ SMF is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4021 · SMF → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?