WN 4031 · SRQ → MDW

departs 6:11 AM ET · arrives 8:14 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SRQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4031 · SRQ → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?