Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4048
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4048 · TPA → STL
departs 5:50 AM ET · arrives 7:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
STL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.