Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 404 · SAT → LAX
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 2:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from SAT are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.