Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 406 · AUS → SMF
departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 35%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.