Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 406 · TUL → AUS
departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 3:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.