WN 4074 · STL → HOU

departs 8:13 AM CT · arrives 10:20 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.32 in

HOU (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4074 · STL → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?